Life in Portugal: Why Portugal (and the U.S.) needs more immigrants
Immigration is a hot topic all over Europe and in the United States. But, few people are having an honest conversation about why it is important and needed.
Recently, I was listening to one of my favorite podcasts; Radiolab. The episode was called “Growth” and it explored several different kinds of growth from regenerating limbs to growing pumpkins in Alaska. But, the segment that I found most interesting was about population growth (and decline).
Despite what I was taught in school in the 1970’s (yeah, I’m old), a human population explosion will not leave us destitute and starving. In fact, most demographers predict that the earth’s population will peak in the late 20th century and then begin a slow decline. Of course, these are just projections and external factors like war or environmental calamity could change the numbers significantly.
Why will the population decline?
Two words: Fertility rate. Since 1963, the number of live births per female (the fertility rate) has been declining.
In order to keep a population from shrinking, each woman must, on average, give birth to 2.1 children (the extra 0.1 is to account for factors like early deaths and infertility).
Currently, the world fertility rate is 2.3, leading to population growth worldwide. However, the fertility rate varies greatly by country. Of the 30 countries with the highest fertility rates, 29 are in Africa. Niger is number one with a fertility rate of 6.6.
Meanwhile, no country in North America or Europe has a fertility rate above 2.1. The highest is Turkey at 1.9, followed by France and Ireland at 1.8. The United States stands at 1.7. Portugal only has a fertility rate of 1.4.
Falling fertility rates
As a rule, when societies become richer, when healthcare becomes more available, when a population becomes more educated, birthrates fall. As women have more economic opportunities, they tend to delay or forego having children.
In addition, when people have access to contraception and abortion, birthrates fall. That’s why some of the richest and best educated countries have seen a decline in fertility rates.
Why we should care about declining population
If a population explosion is a bad thing, draining resources, polluting our air, contaminating our water, and causing conflict, wouldn’t a declining population be a good thing?
Not necessarily.
Declining populations means businesses shutter, schools close, and services are slashed. Look at Detroit, Michigan or Youngstown, Ohio or any number of towns and villages in Portugal. Many places resemble a kind of ghost town. Few people are left and those who remain have poor prospects for the future.
And, from a strictly economic standpoint (ignoring for a moment the human misery associated with this downturn), fewer people means companies need to make fewer things and provide fewer services. With that, profits drop and businesses layoff employees or close altogether.
In addition, fewer births means an aging population.
As healthcare continues to improve, people will live longer. And, as the senior population grows, the working population decreases. So, not only do you have a declining population, you have a working-age population that is declining even faster!
Fewer doctors, nurses, and hospitals will be there to take care of an increasingly healthcare-needy population.
Reversing the decline in fertility rates
Governments have tried for years to get fertility rates to increase. Most programs have fallen into two categories; incentives and deterrents.
Deterrents are things like outlawing abortion, reducing access to contraception, and blocking reproductive education.
Usually, as we’re seeing in the United States, these measures have a short term effect of increasing birthrates. In the long run, however, births typically return to their previous rate as women learn to navigate the new restrictive reality.
Incentives have, surprisingly, also had little effect on fertility rates. Things like tax incentives for children, free childcare, free daycare, and paid parental leave are examples of incentives that are often available in western Europe. But they’ve done little to increase the fertility rate in the EU, a place with some of the lowest birthrates in the world.
Immigration as an answer
If North America and Europe can’t birth its way out of population decline, the only other answer is immigration.
That’s why it’s so disingenuous for politicians to say they want to reduce immigration.
And, it’s not just Republicans in the U.S. being hypocritical. Here in Portugal, the far-right Chega party, which has gained seats in recent elections, is calling for reducing immigration to Portugal. Nearly every western European country has a similar far-right party putting forward the same kind of proposals.
Often, these measures call for only restricting so-called “illegal” immigration and cracking down on those entering the country without permission or overstaying their visa.
However, the reality is that in almost every case, no mechanism is in place for an efficient, large-scale immigration program that will be needed for so-called “legal” immigration of any size.
In the U.S., the current president claims he wants what he calls immigrants from “good” (read northern European) countries, but getting a Green Card (residency) can take 3 years (or longer) and there are stories of Green Card holders being picked up and deported for no reason and without due process.
In addition, citizenship takes at least 10 years, or longer, and is often blocked by a bureaucracy that is instructed to limit or deny the applicants.
Even in Portugal, there is a backlog of hundreds of thousands of applicants looking to move to Portugal or renew their residency. And, that’s in a country that is seen as welcoming!
What’s the answer?
I’m not a demographer or a social scientist. But, it seems to me that, in the long run, there is not a perfect answer. We don’t want to leave a world of out of control population growth where the next generations have a planet destroyed by pollution and conflict.
On the other hand, a shrinking population comprised of elderly people who cannot do the work of society doesn’t seem functional either.
I would put forth that the developed world needs to have strong policies in place that make for a more family-friendly society. More robust childcare and tax incentives, better family leave, things like that.
Paired with a fair and efficient immigration system that recognizes the importance of new arrivals for not only economy but also the fabric of society would be ideal, in my opinion.
About the Author
Brent Petersen is the Editor-in-Chief of Destination Eat Drink. He currently resides in Setubal, Portugal. Brent has written the novel Truffle Hunt (Eckhartz Press) and the short story collection That Bird. He’s also written dozens of foodie travel guides to cities around the world on Destination Eat Drink, including an in-depth eating and drinking guide to Portugal. Brent’s podcast, also called Destination Eat Drink, is available on all major podcasting platforms.